After a lengthy run of wonderful publicity from the media, Dan Buettner and his blue zones run into a storm of criticism. A good thing? Yes, but it misses the point.
"Once a proposition becomes a money-making venture, can we trust the proponents to do rigorous science, which might, as a result, kill their money-making venture?"
I hope you won't think it rude if I reply, "Hell, no!" The key phrase is "money-making". If that is even as important to the participants as seeking the truth, then we can immediately reject their results.
I read the Blue Zones book a couple years ago. I found it quite obvious that the author's conclusions do not actually follow from what he just observed throughout the book.
Italians eating vegan?! Are you kidding me? These people inhale fatty pork like nobody's business.
I get that having a sense of purpose & a community is nice, and maybe prolong your life. But none of the dietary choices seemed to be founded in anything but vegan ideology.
Anybody recall those yogurt commercials (Yoplait was it?) from the late 70's claiming people from Soviet Georgia had extreme longevity because they ate yogurt? The ages of those folks were found to be manufactured as well.
This blue zone malarkey is yet another example of how we--audiences, consumers, readers, listeners--seek and are seduced by seductively elegant explanations. We want an explanation to feel almost obvious when we find it, and logical and consistent with basic observation. It makes us feel smart. But these pop science explanations are rarely more than skin deep. Their proponents run away from complexity like it's the plague. They don't even broach method. It's like everything Malcolm Gladwell has ever written. We love a good story, a simple and elegant story, more than messy science, which is to say, science.
Once again, thank you Gary. You lay it out step by step with skepticism at each step. Doubt everything. Don't trust and verify. Many unknowns and other possibilities, variables. Connection is not causality. And, there is always that big dose of "show me the money". My evolving mantra for my own hanging around the planet and enjoying life is; Lean, Clean, and Serene. My neuroscience reading has hammered it into my head that our human nature craves certainty; pretty sure it has been wired into our survival instincts over thousands of generations; BUT theories are best guesses, predictions only and what is thought to be proven today is subjection to change tomorrow. Keep up the erudite and well researched writing please Gary.
“The absence of what Newman calls “a broad reckoning” in longevity research is a recurring theme in all research having to do with chronic disease”…this quote happens to describe all of what is happening in “aging and longevity research”. It is shifting toward wealthy industrialists who are fully immersed in yeti-hunting without much data to support things like “partial rejuvenation” and “epigenetic aging clocks.” Basically everything Brian Johnson is doing which he calls “research.” So many of the aging experts have now tainted themselves with the wealthy industrialists that are not operating within a sphere of solid science…more within solid science fiction. It’s ok to dream, but u less the data supports it. Take for instance the epigenetic aging clocks that are unvalidated…no one knows if they are aging more rapid or whether it predicts their day of death etc because the models have not been truly validated and have been built on a wide range of healthy and unhealthy people. In fact, the clocks are now geared toward “biological aging” which just adjust for disease covariates and the models are more confusing than ever. Instead we have jumped into commercializing all of it and pretend like we understand it…when the data isn’t clear.
Fascinating. Thank you. Perhaps more attention also needs to be paid to whether or not longevity is what we should be aiming for, or even if it is a reasonable proxy for good "health".
Your write: "So maybe the key is the absence of western foods and the mostly-plants are just a coincidence. Had these populations eaten more animal products, they might have been even healthier than they are. There’s no way to know."
That's a pretty negative view of nutritional and cellular biochemical research, past and future. I'm betting that it is actually possible to know such things, and it'll be better figured out eventually -- science just hasn't stumbled onto and followed that "way to know" quite yet. These things take time in any event, and -- as you have repeatedly illustrated -- effectiveness of human observation and reasoning is subject to a whole lot of interfering factors.
Speaking more generally, it's really interesting that 'blue zone' Sardinians and rather insular people of the Spanish Basque Country represent more or less the same early Neolithic genetic island remnant and both appear to -- at least in their pre-WWII generations -- evidence anomalously ,long longevity. Is also odd that hardly anyone ever remarks upon the reported Basque longevity. Maybe nobody at "National Geographic" told Buettner about them?
If living longer is your life goal ***and you succeed*** you will still lose (big) if you don't know the Author of Life, The Way, The Truth, and The Life, Christ Jesus. "...it is appointed for men to die once and after this, judgment." (Hebrews 9:27)
Validation of centenarian ages (and the issue of whether modern diets are relevant) - aside, the conclusions of the blue zones hypothesis have always seemed like a stretch. Not clear in all cases, how observations for the designated blue zones compare with the experience of neighbouring territories to control for some factors. The diets seemed somewhat diverse across blue zones (e.g rice as a key staple in Nicoyan diet vs sweet potato in Okinawan etc). Looking at very lowest common denominators you have : climate, absence of heavily processed food in traditional diets, greater mobility (a combination of factors which are not unique to those populations).
"... something about western, industrialized diets is bad for our health." Believe it or not, IA Overviews furnish clues as to where the problem lies. (web search - Aracidonic acid intake depression AI) "Cross-sectional studies have found that an elevated ratio of arachidonic acid to omega-3 fatty acid is associated with depression, and controlled intervention studies have found that decreasing this ratio through administration of omega-3 fatty acids can alleviate depressive symptoms."
(web search - Mediterranean diet depression AI) "According to current research, a Mediterranean diet is strongly linked to a reduced risk of depression, with studies showing that people who closely follow this dietary pattern tend to have lower rates of depressive symptoms compared to those who don't; this is likely due to the high intake of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, healthy fats, and antioxidants found in the Mediterranean diet, which can positively impact brain health and overall well-being."
(web search - Arachidonic acid intake Omega-3/6 ratio) "A healthy arachidonic acid (AA) to omega-3 ratio is generally considered to be between 2.5:1 and 11:1, with lower ratios being better for health; this means for every unit of omega-3 fatty acid, you should ideally have between 2.5 and 11 units of arachidonic acid in your diet, with the goal being to keep this ratio as low as possible by increasing omega-3 intake and potentially reducing omega-6 intake."
I love when Gary weighs-in on a topic. Excellent work as always.
"Once a proposition becomes a money-making venture, can we trust the proponents to do rigorous science, which might, as a result, kill their money-making venture?"
I hope you won't think it rude if I reply, "Hell, no!" The key phrase is "money-making". If that is even as important to the participants as seeking the truth, then we can immediately reject their results.
"...the media has started doing its job of critiquing the research".
And after only 19 years! Wow, that is alert journalism.
I read the Blue Zones book a couple years ago. I found it quite obvious that the author's conclusions do not actually follow from what he just observed throughout the book.
Italians eating vegan?! Are you kidding me? These people inhale fatty pork like nobody's business.
I get that having a sense of purpose & a community is nice, and maybe prolong your life. But none of the dietary choices seemed to be founded in anything but vegan ideology.
Anybody recall those yogurt commercials (Yoplait was it?) from the late 70's claiming people from Soviet Georgia had extreme longevity because they ate yogurt? The ages of those folks were found to be manufactured as well.
It was Dannon. I found the ad! https://youtu.be/stsXKIUKh-E
Thoughtful, thorough, objective reasoning...as always. Taubes is a national treasure.
This blue zone malarkey is yet another example of how we--audiences, consumers, readers, listeners--seek and are seduced by seductively elegant explanations. We want an explanation to feel almost obvious when we find it, and logical and consistent with basic observation. It makes us feel smart. But these pop science explanations are rarely more than skin deep. Their proponents run away from complexity like it's the plague. They don't even broach method. It's like everything Malcolm Gladwell has ever written. We love a good story, a simple and elegant story, more than messy science, which is to say, science.
Once again, thank you Gary. You lay it out step by step with skepticism at each step. Doubt everything. Don't trust and verify. Many unknowns and other possibilities, variables. Connection is not causality. And, there is always that big dose of "show me the money". My evolving mantra for my own hanging around the planet and enjoying life is; Lean, Clean, and Serene. My neuroscience reading has hammered it into my head that our human nature craves certainty; pretty sure it has been wired into our survival instincts over thousands of generations; BUT theories are best guesses, predictions only and what is thought to be proven today is subjection to change tomorrow. Keep up the erudite and well researched writing please Gary.
You are a beacon in an age of confusion.
“The absence of what Newman calls “a broad reckoning” in longevity research is a recurring theme in all research having to do with chronic disease”…this quote happens to describe all of what is happening in “aging and longevity research”. It is shifting toward wealthy industrialists who are fully immersed in yeti-hunting without much data to support things like “partial rejuvenation” and “epigenetic aging clocks.” Basically everything Brian Johnson is doing which he calls “research.” So many of the aging experts have now tainted themselves with the wealthy industrialists that are not operating within a sphere of solid science…more within solid science fiction. It’s ok to dream, but u less the data supports it. Take for instance the epigenetic aging clocks that are unvalidated…no one knows if they are aging more rapid or whether it predicts their day of death etc because the models have not been truly validated and have been built on a wide range of healthy and unhealthy people. In fact, the clocks are now geared toward “biological aging” which just adjust for disease covariates and the models are more confusing than ever. Instead we have jumped into commercializing all of it and pretend like we understand it…when the data isn’t clear.
Fascinating. Thank you. Perhaps more attention also needs to be paid to whether or not longevity is what we should be aiming for, or even if it is a reasonable proxy for good "health".
The root of the word health, as Wendell Berry eloquently reminded us of in in his Essay "Health Is Membership" (https://www1.villanova.edu/dam/villanova/mission/faith/Readings/fall-2020/Health%20is%20Membership%20by%20Wendell%20Berry.pdf), is wholeness.
Your write: "So maybe the key is the absence of western foods and the mostly-plants are just a coincidence. Had these populations eaten more animal products, they might have been even healthier than they are. There’s no way to know."
That's a pretty negative view of nutritional and cellular biochemical research, past and future. I'm betting that it is actually possible to know such things, and it'll be better figured out eventually -- science just hasn't stumbled onto and followed that "way to know" quite yet. These things take time in any event, and -- as you have repeatedly illustrated -- effectiveness of human observation and reasoning is subject to a whole lot of interfering factors.
Speaking more generally, it's really interesting that 'blue zone' Sardinians and rather insular people of the Spanish Basque Country represent more or less the same early Neolithic genetic island remnant and both appear to -- at least in their pre-WWII generations -- evidence anomalously ,long longevity. Is also odd that hardly anyone ever remarks upon the reported Basque longevity. Maybe nobody at "National Geographic" told Buettner about them?
If living longer is your life goal ***and you succeed*** you will still lose (big) if you don't know the Author of Life, The Way, The Truth, and The Life, Christ Jesus. "...it is appointed for men to die once and after this, judgment." (Hebrews 9:27)
If Jesus is your Lord, that makes you a peasant. Hard pass for me.
I would rather know Socrates, Seneca, Epictetus, and Marcus Aurelius.
A lovely life without genuflection!
Check back with me in 100 years.
Validation of centenarian ages (and the issue of whether modern diets are relevant) - aside, the conclusions of the blue zones hypothesis have always seemed like a stretch. Not clear in all cases, how observations for the designated blue zones compare with the experience of neighbouring territories to control for some factors. The diets seemed somewhat diverse across blue zones (e.g rice as a key staple in Nicoyan diet vs sweet potato in Okinawan etc). Looking at very lowest common denominators you have : climate, absence of heavily processed food in traditional diets, greater mobility (a combination of factors which are not unique to those populations).
"... something about western, industrialized diets is bad for our health." Believe it or not, IA Overviews furnish clues as to where the problem lies. (web search - Aracidonic acid intake depression AI) "Cross-sectional studies have found that an elevated ratio of arachidonic acid to omega-3 fatty acid is associated with depression, and controlled intervention studies have found that decreasing this ratio through administration of omega-3 fatty acids can alleviate depressive symptoms."
(web search - Mediterranean diet depression AI) "According to current research, a Mediterranean diet is strongly linked to a reduced risk of depression, with studies showing that people who closely follow this dietary pattern tend to have lower rates of depressive symptoms compared to those who don't; this is likely due to the high intake of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, healthy fats, and antioxidants found in the Mediterranean diet, which can positively impact brain health and overall well-being."
(web search - Arachidonic acid intake Omega-3/6 ratio) "A healthy arachidonic acid (AA) to omega-3 ratio is generally considered to be between 2.5:1 and 11:1, with lower ratios being better for health; this means for every unit of omega-3 fatty acid, you should ideally have between 2.5 and 11 units of arachidonic acid in your diet, with the goal being to keep this ratio as low as possible by increasing omega-3 intake and potentially reducing omega-6 intake."
lol - baffled, I Googled "IA Overviews" - Internal Affairs? Iowa? Intelligent Automation? Ah, clearly Merriam-Webster has it right: "dialectal present tense first-person and third-person singular of be"!